The Money Runner
2015 Bull Market – It’s Different This Time
By David Nelson, CFA Every year, around this time strategists put together projections taking a bull or bear stance as the sound of the first opening bell rings in 2015. After a 6 year run, a PE multiple marching steadily higher, a wave of buybacks that can’t last and a Fed heading to the exit, […]
Oil – The Black Swan – Part 1
By David Nelson, CFA No market event creates more fear in the hearts and minds of investors than that of the Black Swan. Wikipedia explains the Black Swan theory developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb as follows: The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events… The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using […]
The Twelfth Round – Alpha Select November Update
Alpha Select – November 2014 Update *Alpha Select – November +3.00% YTD +14.51% **S&P 500 – November +2.45% YTD +13.49% * Net of Fees ** Includes Dividends By David Nelson, CFA Nothing short of a December knock out is going to save the Bears this year. With only 3 down months in 2014, the ref’s scorecard has it 8-3 […]
The Glass is Half ?
By David Nelson, CFA Alpha Select – October 2014 Update *Alpha Select – September +0.18% YTD +11.17% **S&P 500 – September +2.32% YTD +10.71% * Net of Fees ** Includes Dividends October tends to be a nervous period for investors. Anyone who’s been in the business long enough still remembers Black Monday in 1987 when […]
The Pendulum Shifts
By David Nelson, CFA It’s no secret that there’s been a raging debate inside the Fed. Hawks like Fed Governors Plosser and Fisher have been quite vocal in recent months taking every chance to voice their concerns that the Fed was falling behind the curve. In previous Fed releases it’s the hawks that have taken […]
The Holy Grail
By David Nelson, CFA The goal of market timing is obvious to all investors. Step out of the market when conditions become unfavorable and quickly buy back when the bottom is in. If you haven’t fallen off your chair laughing yet let me continue. Successful market timing is the Holy Grail and of course incredibly […]
The New New Line in the Sand – Follow-Up
By David Nelson, CFA From the start of the decline to the present talking heads including yours truly have been drawing an endless series of chart trend lines searching for one that supports an extension of the bull thesis. I started off a couple of weeks ago with the 120 moving average which lasted only […]
