The Money Runner
Operational Risk Management 2023 – Portfolio Go No Go Checklist!
By David Nelson, CFA CMT All branches of the military use ORM or their own Operational Risk Management system. It’s an imperative before launching any mission and commonly used by pilots in making go no go decisions. We identify the risks even those with low probability and make a quantitative judgement as to the feasibility of […]
Nothing Changes Market Sentiment Like Price
By David Nelson, CFA Investors have a myopic focus on U.S. stocks sometimes to the exclusion of most other asset classes. The stock centric thinking becomes even more pronounced when the conversation shifts to the mega cap community including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon. Tech has dominated investor sentiment for the better part of a decade. […]
Is the bull market in gold over?
By David Nelson, CFA Rate hike fears and a strong dollar trashed gold this week driving down the metal and associated ETF’s to the lowest levels since Brexit. The inverse relationship between gold and the dollar is well documented hence the selloff in the yellow metal makes perfect sense in light of a rising dollar […]
I’ve good news & bad news for investors – Which do you want first?
By David Nelson, CFA I’ve got some good news and bad news. The good news is: stocks, bonds and gold exhibited high positive correlation last week all moving higher giving most investors something to cheer about after a rough start to the month. The bad news is: stocks, bonds and gold exhibited high positive correlation […]
Are early signs of inflation signaling a market bottom?
By David Nelson, CFA From the depths of the financial crisis we’ve been told deflation was an enemy that could push world economies to the edge of the abyss. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made it his lifelong study and today central banks everywhere follow his path. ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) and quantitative […]
The Pendulum Shifts
By David Nelson, CFA It’s no secret that there’s been a raging debate inside the Fed. Hawks like Fed Governors Plosser and Fisher have been quite vocal in recent months taking every chance to voice their concerns that the Fed was falling behind the curve. In previous Fed releases it’s the hawks that have taken […]
I Love Gold!
By David Nelson, CFA Anyone who has followed me for the last couple of years knows I’m a long term Gold Bear. I think the Bear Market started in 2011 and could last for several more years. Even Bear Markets have rallies and yesterday’s release of the Fed’s FOMC Minutes may have set up a […]
The Siren Song of Emerging Markets (EEM)
By David Nelson, CFA The emerging markets have always been the beta trade. U.S. markets go up and Emerging Markets rise even more. The inverse was also true but we knew that going in. These were developing markets that would sometimes falter. Inflation, policy mistakes, revolutions, dictators you name it were all risks investors were […]
